Analyzing the Top 2010 Kentucky Derby Contenders

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The next four horses scored an equal number of points and are thus presented in alphabetical order.

Dean's Kitten earned his way to the Derby off his win in the Lane's End Stakes at Turfway on March 27. This prep is 6 weeks out, which is negative, along with his lack of a 100 Beyer, not a dual qualifier, and the fact that he has run three consecutive best Beyers, a pattern which almost always fails in the Derby.


On the positive side he has enough starts at 2 and 3, is coming off a sharp prep, has a stakes win this year, has a dosage under 4, and rallies from off the pace.

Jackson Bend last raced in the Wood Memorial finishing a distant second behind Eskendereya, qualifying as a sharp prep 4 weeks out. As well, he made 6 starts at 2 including a 100-Beyer effort at Calder, and 3 races this year, all positive factors. On the negative side he runs within 2 lengths of the pace, lacks a stakes win this year (he has finished second in all three starts this year), and has a dosage index over 4.

Line of David pulled off a 17-1 upset in the Arkansas Derby in his stakes debut to earn his way into the field. This qualifies as a sharp prep 3 weeks out and a stakes win this year, his 4th this season. He made the minimum 2 starts as a juvenile, so qualifies on that factor, and has a dosage under 4. On the negative side, he is not a dual qualifier, and is a need-the-lead type in a race that already figures to have a hot pace.

Worst yet, he has run three consecutive best Beyers, topping out at 98, short of the 100 requirement.

Make Music for Me finished 6th beaten 8 lengths in the Blue Grass Stakes, in just his second start as a 3-year-old, so he does not qualify on sharp prep nor in number of starts this year. As well his best Beyer is 93 earned on the turf at Santa Anita and he stalks the pace as opposed to rallying. On the positive side he did race 6 times as a juvenile, has a stakes win this year, is coming off a 4 week layoff, and is a dual qualifier.

The next four horses scored an equal number of points and are thus presented in alphabetical order.

Conveyance had his unbeaten streak broken when he finished second in the Sunland Derby on March 28. This qualifies as a sharp prep in this 3rd start as a 3-year-old, to go with his stakes wins in the San Rafael and the Southwest. He made the minimum 2 starts as juvenile. However he runs on the lead, is coming off a 5 week layoff, has a dosage over 4, and has not broken the 100 Beyer mark.

Homeboykris has not raced since finishing 2nd in an allowance at Gulfstream on February 27, a whopping 9 week layoff to the Derby. As well, his best Beyer is an 89, he only has 2 starts this year without a stakes win, and is not a dual qualifier. On the positive side he is a dual qualifier, ran 4 starts as a juvenile, 6 starts total, has shown an ability to come from off the pace, and is off a sharp prep.

Noble's Promise finished fifth beaten 4 1/4 lengths in the Arkansas Derby, which is not a sharp prep. As well, he his best Beyer is a 98, he is winless this year in just 2 starts, and runs close to the pace. On the positive side, he started 6 times last year, is coming off a 3 week layoff, and is a dual qualifier.

Super Saver finished a close second in the Arkansas Derby, a sharp prep 3 weeks out, to go along with his dual qualifier status, 4 starts as a juvenile, and 6 lifetime starts. However, his last three starts were consecutive Beyer tops, his best Beyer is a slow 98, he runs close to the pace, and he is winless in just 2 starts as a 3-year-old.

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